About
SCOPE (Spatial Crude Oil Price Equilibrium) is a research tool that models the global crude oil market as a spatial network. It simulates how prices, trade flows, and supply chains respond to disruptions such as strait closures, sanctions, and capacity shocks.
The model combines a classical Samuelson-Takayama-Judge spatial equilibrium framework with a physical network of 2,500+ oil fields, 574 refineries, and 90,000+ shipping and pipeline edges. It solves a daily linear program to determine equilibrium prices, production, and trade flows across the entire network simultaneously.
See also Gernot Wagner's Nature World View for broader context on the geopolitics of oil chokepoints.
Contributors
Hidde Kolmeijer
PhD Student, ETH Zürich
Hidde is a PhD student in chemical engineering at ETH Zürich
with interests in energy markets and sustainable chemicals and fuels.
He holds an M.Sc. in Advanced Chemical Engineering from Imperial College London.
Gernot Wagner
Climate Economist, Columbia Business School
Gernot Wagner is a climate economist at Columbia Business School
and faculty director of its Climate Knowledge Initiative. He holds
a Ph.D. and M.A. in Political Economy and Government from Harvard,
and an M.A. in Economics from Stanford.